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Solar Maximum
Every
11 years the sun undergoes a period of activity called the "solar
maximum", followed by a period of quiet called the "solar
minimum". During the solar maximum there are many sunspots, solar flares,
and coronal mass ejections, all of which can affect communications and weather
here on Earth.
Solar
maximum or solar max is the period of greatest solar activity in the solar cycle
of the sun. During solar maximum, sunspots appear. Solar maximum is contrasted
with solar minimum. Solar maximum is the period when the suns magnetic field
lines are the most distorted due to the magnetic field on the solar equator
rotating at a slightly faster pace than at the solar poles. The sun takes about
11 years to go from one solar maximum to another and 22 years to complete a full
cycle (where the magnetic charge on the poles is the same).
The Sun, a roiling ball of
plasma, occupies its place in space approximately 93 million miles from Earth.
Though it seems simple to inhabitants of this planet -- the Sun shines, giving
light and heat -- the processes occurring in the Sun are so complex that many
scientists devote their careers to just one aspect of solar activity.
Changes in the activity of the
Sun particularly engage solar scientists. Whether fluctuations in the solar
magnetic field, expulsions of plasma called coronal mass ejections, emissions of
high-energy flares, or changes in the sunspot number, variations in solar
activity can be dramatic and therefore highly interesting.
Through careful study of solar
activity (particularly sunspots, visible from Earth through telescopes) over
hundreds of years, scientists have found a consistent cycle of activity: every
eleven years, activity rises to a maximum, then falls to a minimum. To track the
solar cycle, scientists plot the average of Wolf numbers (values from a method
of counting sunspots devised by Johann Rudolf Wolf in 1848) from various
observatories daily to get a sunspot number graph.
The sunspot or solar cycle does
not have the same magnitude every eleven years, however. Entire cycles can have
lower activity levels than usual, as during the Maunder Minimum from 1645 to
1700, or the upcoming maximum might have more activity than ever.
Sunspots at Solar
Maximum and Minimum


These images
from the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory (SOHO) spacecraft compare sunspots
on the Sun’s surface (top row) and ultraviolet light radiating from the solar
atmosphere (bottom row) at the last solar maximum (2000, left column) and at the
current solar minimum (2009, right column.) The sunspot images were captured by
the Michelson Doppler Imager (MDI) using filtered visible light. On March 18,
2009, the face of the Sun was spotless.
The other set of images, acquired by the Extreme Ultraviolet Imaging Telescope (EIT),
shows ultraviolet light radiating from the layer of the atmosphere just above
the Sun’s surface. This part of the solar atmosphere is about 60,000 Kelvin—a
thousand times hotter than the surface of the Sun itself. On July 19, 2000, the
solar atmosphere was pulsating with activity: in addition to several extremely
bright (hot) spots around the mid-latitudes, there were also numerous
prominences around the edge of the disk. On March 18, 2009, however, our star
was relatively subdued.
The Maunder
Minimum
Early records of sunspots
indicate that the Sun went through a period of inactivity in the late 17th
century. Very few sunspots were seen on the Sun from about 1645 to 1715 .
Although the observations were not as extensive as in later years, the Sun was
in fact well observed during this time and this lack of sunspots is well
documented. This period of solar inactivity also corresponds to a climatic
period called the "Little Ice Age" when rivers that are normally
ice-free froze and snow fields remained year-round at lower altitudes. There is
evidence that the Sun has had similar periods of inactivity in the more distant
past. The connection between solar activity and terrestrial climate is an area
of on-going research. It is named after the solar astronomer Edward W.
Maunder (1851–1928) who studied changes of sunspots latitudes in different
times and also during second part of 17th Century.

The Dalton
Minimum
The Dalton Minimum
was a period of low solar activity, named for the English meteorologist John
Dalton, lasting from about 1790 to 1830. Like the Maunder Minimum and Spörer
Minimum, the Dalton Minimum coincided with a period of lower-than-average global
temperatures. The Oberlach Station in Germany, for example, experienced a 2.0°
C decline over 20 years. The Year Without a Summer, in 1816, also occurred
during the Dalton Minimum.

There
have been several other less dramatic dips in the level of solar activity, in
terms of sunspot counts, over time. These include Spörer Minimum (1450 to
1540), Wolf Minimum (1280 to 1340), and Oort Minimum (1010 to 1050). Based on
evidence other than direct observations of sunspot counts, in total there seem
to have been 18 periods of sunspot minima in the last 8,000 years, and studies
indicate that the Sun currently spends up to a quarter of its time in these
minima. There have also been periods of enhanced solar activity in terms of
greater sunspot counts. The Medieval Maximum lasted from about 1100 to 1250, and
roughly corresponds to an extended warm period of Earth's (or maybe just
Europe's) climate called the Medieval Warm Period that lasted from the 10th to
the 14th century... further fueling speculation about possible links between
solar activity and Earth's climate.
First official sunspot
belonging to the new Solar Cycle 24


February 17 2008-NASA
and European Space Agency satellite images have captured the appearance of the
first sunspot of the new solar cycle. Sunspots are areas of intense magnetic
activity that are visible on the surface of the Sun as dark spots. Sunspot
activity rises and falls on a roughly 11-year cycle. The previous solar cycle
peaked between 2000 and 2002. Even as scientists kept an eye on the sunspot “stragglers”
of waning Solar Cycle 23 in late 2007, they were also on the lookout for the
first sunspot that would signal the start of Solar Cycle 24.
On January 4, 2008, the new sunspot—about the width of the Earth, but small by
Sun standards—appeared in the Sun’s Northern Hemisphere, with its north
magnetic pole (red area) pointing to the right and its south magnetic pole
(blue) pointing to the left. The image was captured by the Solar and
Heliospheric Observatory satellite. The sunspot lasted until January 6 before
fading away. The animations above show activity between January 1-14.
The position of the magnetic poles in sunspot 10981 was one of the ways
scientists knew it was part of a new cycle. Within any particular cycle, the
sunspots in each hemisphere will have opposite polarity, and the polarity for
each hemisphere reverses from cycle to cycle. Since the large sunspot area in
the Southern Hemisphere from Solar Cycle 23 (number 10980, shown in the
left-hand part of the image) is also oriented with its north pole at right and
south pole at left, the new one that appeared in the Northern Hemisphere on
January 4 must be part of a different solar cycle.
The other criteria that let scientists know that spot 10981 was part of a new
cycle was its location on the face of the Sun. The first sunspots of a new solar
cycle always appear in the higher latitudes of both hemispheres. As the cycle
matures, the sunspots get closer and closer to the equator. When scientists
graph the latitude of sunspots over the course of many solar cycles, the result
is a sequence of symmetrical shapes that they refer to as a “butterfly
diagram.” Butterfly diagrams also show how the last sunspots of older cycles
occur at the same time as the first sunspots of new cycles, just as sunspots
from Solar Cycles 23 and 24 overlap in the image.
The area of the Sun affected by sunspots varies from cycle to cycle (final
graph) and depends on the number and size of the spots. Solar Cycle 19 (second
peak from left), which began in 1954 and peaked in 1957, is the record holder
for most active solar cycle, with 201 sunspots. Higher numbers of sunspots make
major solar storms more likely. Solar storms can interfere with power grids,
aircraft navigation and communication systems, and satellites. The panel of
scientists who issue forecasts for the Space Environments Center at the National
Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration was evenly spilt about the prospects for
Solar Cycle 24. About half the panelists thought it would be a moderately strong
cycle, with about 140 sunspots, and the other half thought it would be
moderately weak, with about 90 sunspots.

NOAA: Mild Solar Storm
Season Predicted
May 8,
2009
Although its peak is
still four years away, a new active period of Earth-threatening solar
storms will be the weakest since 1928, predicts an international panel
of experts led by NOAA’s Space
Weather Prediction Center and funded by NASA. Despite the
prediction, Earth is still vulnerable to a severe solar storm.
Solar storms are
eruptions of energy and matter that escape from the sun and may head
toward Earth, where even a weak storm can damage satellites and power
grids, disrupting communications, the electric power supply and GPS. A
single strong blast of “solar wind” can threaten national security,
transportation, financial services and other essential functions.
The panel predicts the
upcoming Solar Cycle 24 will peak in May 2013 with 90 sunspots per day
on average. If the prediction proves true, Solar Cycle 24 will be the
weakest cycle since number 16, which peaked at 78 daily sunspots in
1928, and ninth weakest since the 1750s, when numbered cycles began.
The most common measure
of a solar cycle’s intensity is the number of sunspots—Earth-sized
blotches on the sun marking areas of heightened magnetic activity. The
more sunspots there are, the more likely it is that solar storms will
occur, but a major storm can occur at any time.
“As with hurricanes,
whether a cycle is active or weak refers to the number of storms, but
everyone needs to remember it only takes one powerful storm to cause
huge problems,” said NOAA scientist Doug Biesecker, who chairs the
panel. “The strongest solar storm on record occurred in 1859 during
another below-average cycle.”
The 1859 storm shorted
out telegraph wires, causing fires in North America and Europe, sent
readings of Earth’s magnetic field soaring, and produced northern
lights so bright that people read newspapers by their light.
A recent report by the
National Academy of Sciences found that if a storm that severe occurred
today, it could cause $1-2 trillion in damages the first year and
require four to 10 years for recovery, compared to $80-125 billion that
resulted from Hurricane Katrina.
The panel also predicted
that the lowest sunspot number between cycles — or solar minimum —
occurred in December 2008, marking the end of Cycle 23 and the start of
Cycle 24. If the December prediction holds up, at 12 years and seven
months Solar Cycle 23 will be the longest since 1823 and the third
longest since 1755. Solar cycles span 11 years on average, from minimum
to minimum.
An unusually long, deep
lull in sunspots led the panel to revise its 2007 prediction that the
next cycle of solar storms would start in March 2008 and peak in late
2011 or mid-2012. The persistence of a quiet sun also led the panel to a
consensus that the next cycle will be “moderately weak.”
NOAA’s Space Weather
Prediction Center (SWPC) is the nation’s first alert of solar activity
and its effects on Earth. The Center’s space weather experts issue
outlooks for the next 11-year solar cycle and warn of storms occurring
on the Sun that could impact Earth. SWPC is also the world warning
agency for the International Space Environment Service, a consortium of
12 member nations.
As the world economy
becomes more reliant on satellite-based communications and interlinked
power grids, interest in solar activity has grown dramatically. In 2008
alone, SWPC acquired 1,700 new subscription customers for warnings,
alerts, reports, and other products. Among the new customers are
emergency managers, airlines, state transportation departments, oil
companies, and nuclear power stations. SWPC’s customers reside in 150
countries.
“Our customer growth
reflects today’s reality that all sectors of society are highly
dependent on advanced, space-based technologies,” said SWPC director
Tom Bogdan. “Today every hiccup from the sun aimed at Earth has
potential consequences.”
NOAA understands and
predicts changes in the Earth's environment, from the depths of the
ocean to the surface of the sun, and conserves and manages our coastal
and marine resources.
Credit:
NASA , European Space Agency,UCAR |