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The Global
Challenge of WMD Terrorism
Country
Reports on Terrorism
Released by the Office of the Coordinator for
Counterterrorism
April 30, 2007
Introduction
The nexus of weapons of
mass destruction (WMD) and terrorism poses one of the gravest potential risks to
the national security of the United States and its global partners. A successful
major WMD terrorist attack could result in hundreds of thousands of casualties
and produce far-reaching economic and political consequences that would affect
all members of the international community. This chapter outlines:
- The key elements of the United
States' National Strategy for Combating WMD Terrorism;
- The various types of materials
terrorists may use in a WMD attack;
- The potential that resources
of a state could be directed or diverted to facilitate WMD terrorism;
- The emerging WMD terrorism
threat presented by non-state facilitators; and
- Transformational U.S.
partnerships to combat this growing global risk.
The U.S. Government places the
highest priority on working with a broad range of international partners,
international organizations and national governments, as well as local
governments and private sector organizations, to develop effective partnerships
to meet the global challenge of WMD terrorism.
Diplomatic Strategic
Priorities for Combating WMD Terrorism
U.S. diplomatic priorities for combating WMD terrorism build on the
comprehensive approach set forth in the U.S. National Strategy for Combating WMD
Terrorism. Specifically, our strategic approach hinges on the six objectives
outlined in the National Strategy. We work across all objectives simultaneously
to maximize our ability to eliminate the threat.
- Determine terrorists'
intentions, capabilities, and plans to develop or acquire WMD. We
need to understand and assess the credibility of threat reporting and
provide technical assessments of terrorists' WMD capabilities.
- Deny terrorists access to
the materials, expertise, and other enabling capabilities required to
develop WMD. We seek
to deny our enemies access to WMD-related materials (with a particular focus
on weapons-usable fissile materials), methods of transport, sources of
funds, and other capabilities that facilitate the execution of a WMD attack.
In addition to building upon existing initiatives to secure materials, we
are developing innovative approaches that blend classic counterproliferation,
nonproliferation, and counterterrorism efforts.
- Deter terrorists from
employing WMD. A new
deterrence calculus combines the need to deter terrorists, facilitators, and
supporters from contemplating a WMD attack and, failing that, to dissuade
them from actually conducting an attack. Traditional threats may not work
because terrorists generally show a wanton disregard for the lives of
innocents and, in some cases, for their own lives. We require a range of
deterrence strategies that are tailored to the various WMD threats and the
individual actors who facilitate or enable those threats. We will employ
diplomatic strategies that seek to address extremism and diffuse volatile
conditions to discourage populations from considering WMD an appropriate
tool to address perceived injustices.
- Detect and disrupt
terrorists' attempted movement of WMD-related materials, weapons, and
personnel. We will
seek to expand our global capability for detecting illicit materials,
weapons, and personnel transiting abroad or heading for the United States or
U.S. interests overseas. We will use our global partnerships, international
agreements, and ongoing border security and interdiction efforts. We also
will continue to work with countries to enact and enforce strict penalties
for WMD trafficking and other suspect WMD-related activities.
- Prevent and respond to a
WMD-related terrorist attack. Once
the possibility of a WMD attack against the United States has been detected,
we will seek to contain, interdict, and eliminate the threat. We will
continue to develop requisite capabilities to eliminate the possibility of a
WMD operation and to prevent a possible follow-on attack. We will prepare
ourselves for possible WMD incidents by developing capabilities to manage
the range of consequences that may result from such an attack against the
United States or our interests around the world.
- Define the nature and
source of a terrorist-employed WMD device.
Should a WMD terrorist attack occur, the rapid identification of the source
and perpetrator of an attack would enable our response efforts and may be
critical in disrupting follow-on attacks. We will maintain and improve our
capability to determine responsibility for the intended or actual use of WMD
via accurate attribution - the rapid fusion of technical forensic data with
intelligence and law enforcement information.
As we move forward in the
implementation of our diplomatic strategic priorities for combating WMD
terrorism, we will take special care to work closely with the full range of
foreign partners to prioritize and to tailor our capacity-building approaches to
the regional and local conditions we face across the world.
The Material Threats
There are four generally accepted
categories of weapons of mass destruction that terrorists may seek to acquire
and use in a WMD terrorist attack: nuclear, radiological, biological, and
chemical.
Nuclear
Some terrorist
organizations, such as AQ, have openly stated their desire to acquire and use
nuclear weapons. The diffusion of scientific and technical information regarding
the assembly of nuclear weapons, some of which is now available on the Internet,
has increased the risk that a terrorist organization in possession of sufficient
fissile material could develop its own nuclear weapon. The complete production
of a nuclear weapon strongly depends on the terrorist group's access to fissile
material and scientific expertise. Terrorists may, however, seek to link up with
a variety of facilitators to develop their own nuclear capability. These
facilitators include black market proliferators or transnational criminal
networks that may seek to profit from the sale of nuclear material, a weaponized
device, or technical knowledge gathered from nuclear experts involved in a
national nuclear program.
Radiological
Some terrorists seek to
acquire radiological materials for use in a radiological dispersal device (RDD)
or "dirty bomb." Most radiological materials lack sufficient strength
to present a public health risk, but public panic and the economic disruption
caused by a radiological dispersal device would be significant. Radiological
materials are used widely across the medical industry including medical isotopes
and sources used in some X-ray machines; and in the oil industry they are used
in well-logging devices and other measuring instruments. Its widespread use
makes radiological material significantly easier to procure than fissile nuclear
material.
Biological
Biological weapons,
another deadly threat, consist of pathogens that are deliberately dispersed
through food, air, water, or living organisms. If properly produced and
released, biological weapons can kill on a massive scale, even spreading across
oceans to distant continents and population centers.
Like other WMD, developing a
biological weapons capability represents scientific and operational challenges.
The quality of a biological weapon greatly determines its ability to harm
people. It requires scientific expertise to assemble a biological weapon or
develop and disperse a suitable pathogen such as the one used in the 2001
anthrax attacks in the United States. Some terrorist organizations, however,
remain interested in developing a bioweapons capability.
Among present-day terrorist
organizations, AQ is believed to have made the greatest effort to acquire and
develop biological weapons. U.S. forces discovered a partially built biological
weapon laboratory near Kandahar after expelling the Taliban from Afghanistan.
Although it was not conclusive that AQ succeeded in obtaining a biological
weapon, the discovery demonstrated a concerted effort to acquire a biological
weapons capability.
Chemical
Chemical weapons
represent another highly dangerous potential tool in the hands of terrorists.
Effectively dispersed and in sufficient dosages, chemical weapons could injure
tens of thousands. Not since the 1995 sarin attack conducted by Aum Shinrikyo in
the Tokyo subway system has an attack been conducted with a sophisticated
chemical device. Since then, only materials with legitimate dual uses, such as
pesticides, poisons, and industrial chemicals, have been used. The growth and
sophistication of the worldwide chemical industry, including the development of
complex synthetic and dual-use materials, may make the task of preventing and
protecting against this threat more difficult. Preventing chemical terrorism is
particularly challenging as terrorists can, with relative ease, use commercial
industrial toxins, pesticides, and other commonly available chemical agents as
low-cost alternatives to conventional attacks - though likely with limited
effects rather than mass casualties.
Dual-Use Materials, Equipment,
Research and Technology of Concern
Reducing the risk of
terrorist acquisition of, access to, and use of dual-use materials, equipment,
research, and technology of concern also remains a critical challenge.
Terrorists have shown an interest in developing improvised devices leveraging
such capabilities, and the diffusion of information on the Internet regarding
dual-use research of concern has compounded this challenge. Recent attacks in
Iraq involving improvised devices containing chlorine, a dual-use chemical used
in water treatment facilities, offer a notable example. Effective partnerships
with private sector organizations - industry, academia, and the scientific
research community - as well as with local governments will play an important
role in mitigating the risk of dual-use capabilities falling into the wrong
hands.
State Sponsorship of
Terrorism: A Key Concern
A state that directs WMD
resources to terrorists, or one from which enabling resources are clandestinely
diverted, may pose a potentially grave WMD terrorism threat. Although terrorist
organizations will continue to seek a WMD capability independent of state
programs, the sophisticated WMD knowledge and resources of a state could enable
a terrorist capability. State sponsors of terrorism and all nations that fail to
live up to their international counterterrorism and nonproliferation obligations
deserve greater scrutiny as potential facilitators of WMD terrorism.
Non-State Facilitators: An
Emerging Threat
State sponsors of
terrorism represent just one facet of the overall risk of WMD terrorism.
Non-state facilitators have emerged as a growing WMD proliferation threat in
recent years. In 2003, the United States and its international partners
succeeded in interdicting a shipment of WMD-related material destined for
Libya's then active nuclear weapons program. As facts emerged regarding this
shipment and its origin, the U.S. Government gained insight into an emerging WMD
terrorism risk. Pakistani nuclear scientist A.Q. Khan had developed a
transnational nuclear proliferation network reaching from Southeast Asia to
Europe, and was making available sensitive technology and WMD-related materials
to nations willing to pay.
The dismantling of the A.Q. Khan
network revealed an uncomfortable truth about globalization. The very trends
driving globalization - improved communications and transportation links - can
enable development of extended proliferation networks that may facilitate the
terrorist acquisition of WMD. Globalization requires that partner nations work
together closely to prevent, detect, and disrupt linkages that may develop
between terrorists and facilitators such as A.Q. Khan.
Transformational Partnerships
to Combat WMD Terrorism
Since September 11, 2001,
the international community has taken significant strides in responding to the
threat of WMD terrorism. States are working together bilaterally and
multilaterally to address these threats and protect their populations. The
United States has taken concrete measures to build a layered defense against the
WMD terrorism threat. In 2003, the U.S. Government announced the first National
Strategy to Combat Weapons of Mass Destruction. Through a variety of
multinational initiatives such as the Global Partnership against the Spread of
Weapons of Mass Destruction, the Global Threat Reduction Initiative, and the
Proliferation Security Initiative, and most recently, through the Global
Initiative to Combat Nuclear Terrorism, the United States has taken a leadership
role in reducing the threat of WMD in the hands of non-state actors and
terrorists.
The Proliferation Security
Initiative
Announced by President
Bush in 2003, the Proliferation Security Initiative (PSI) deserves special
mention as a particularly well received and effective international initiative.
The PSI is a global effort that aims to stop the trafficking of WMD, their
delivery systems, and related materials to and from states and non-state actors
of proliferation concern worldwide. States that wish to join the PSI are asked
to endorse a Statement of Interdiction Principles that identifies specific
measures participants intend to undertake for the interdiction of WMD and
related materials. PSI participants also conduct exercises to improve their
operational capabilities to conduct interdictions, and meet periodically to
develop new operational concepts and share information. PSI has led to a number
of important interdictions over the last two years and is an important tool in
the overall U.S. strategy to combat WMD terrorism.
The Global Initiative to
Combat Nuclear Terrorism
Presidents Bush and Putin
announced the Global Initiative to Combat Nuclear Terrorism on July 15, 2006 to
expand and accelerate the development of partnership capacity against one of the
most serious threats to international security. Although PSI has marshaled
resources to support interdiction, the Global Initiative focuses on
strengthening the other defensive layers necessary to prevent, protect against,
and respond comprehensively to the nuclear terrorist threat.
Australia, Canada, China, France,
Germany, Italy, Japan, Kazakhstan, Morocco, Russia, the United Kingdom, and the
United States agreed to and endorsed a Statement of Principles and Terms of
Reference for the Initiative in a meeting in Rabat, Morocco on October 30-31.
The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) attended as an observer. By
agreeing to the Statement of Principles, partner nations committed themselves
to:
- Develop, if necessary, and
improve accounting, control, and physical protection systems for
nuclear and other radioactive materials and substances;
- Enhance security of civilian
nuclear facilities;
- Improve the ability to detect
nuclear and other radioactive materials and substances in order to
prevent illicit trafficking in such materials and substances, to
include cooperation in the research and development of national detection
capabilities that would be interoperable;
- Improve capabilities of
participants to search for, confiscate, and establish safe control over
unlawfully held nuclear or other radioactive materials and substances or
devices using them;
- Prevent the provision of safe
haven to terrorists and financial or economic resources to terrorists
seeking to acquire or use nuclear and other radioactive materials and
substances;
- Ensure adequate respective
national legal and regulatory frameworks sufficient to provide for the
implementation of appropriate criminal and, if applicable, civil liability
for terrorists and those who facilitate acts of nuclear terrorism;
- Improve capabilities of
participants for response, mitigation, and investigation, in cases of
terrorist attacks involving the use of nuclear and other radioactive
materials and substances, including the development of technical means to
identify nuclear and other radioactive materials and substances that are, or
may be, involved in the incident; and
- Promote information sharing
pertaining to the suppression of acts of nuclear terrorism and their
facilitation, taking appropriate measures consistent with their national law
and international obligations to protect the confidentiality of any
information which they exchange in confidence.
Additional U.S. Efforts
Supporting a Global Layered Defense
The United States has
also worked with partner nations through the United Nations and the IAEA to
reduce the threat of WMD in the hands of terrorists. In the past few years, the
UN Security Council has passed two important resolutions related to the
prevention of terrorism and the proliferation of WMD. In 2001, the Security
Council adopted Resolution 1373, which requires all UN member states to refrain
from providing any support, active or passive, to terrorists, and to work
together to limit terrorist movement and safe haven. In 2004, the Security
Council adopted Resolution 1540, which requires all UN member states to refrain
from providing support to non-state actors that attempt to develop or acquire
WMD and their means of delivery. The United States remains committed to full
implementation of both UN Security Council Resolutions 1373 and 1540 and stands
ready to support our partners in this area.
In 2005, the UN General Assembly
adopted the Convention on the Suppression of Acts of Nuclear Terrorism (Nuclear
Terrorism Convention). The United States was one of the first signatories. There
are now over 100 signatories to this Convention, and the United States is taking
steps to prepare for ratification. The adoption of the Nuclear Terrorism
Convention, and the recent adoption of the Amendment to the Convention on the
Physical Protection of Nuclear Material and the Protocol to the Convention for
the Suppression of Unlawful Acts against the Safety of Maritime Navigation, both
U.S. initiatives, underscore the importance that many countries are now placing
on cooperating to reduce the risk of WMD terrorism.
Conclusion
The potential threat of
terrorists acquiring and using WMD poses one of the greatest security challenges
facing the United States and our international partners today. During the past
year, the U.S. Government has built on a range of activities and launched new
efforts to prevent, protect against, and respond to the threat or use of WMD.
Together with partner nations and international organizations, the United States
will continue to take the initiative to reduce the global risk of WMD terrorism.
Credit: United States Department
of State
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